Newsbox: Aviva Investors: TRUMP ELECTION PROMPTS BIGGEST CHANGE IN MARKET

SENTIMENT SI...

AVIVA INVESTORS

MEDIA RELEASE

11 January 2017


TRUMP ELECTION PROMPTS BIGGEST CHANGE IN MARKET SENTIMENT SINCE GLOBAL FINANCIAL
CRISIS

Photo Ian Pizer:
http://e3.marco.ch/publish/bluerobin/541_6077/Ian_Pizer_ho_bw_nb.jpg

Media Release (PDF):
http://e3.marco.ch/publish/bluerobin/541_6078/Trump_prompts_biggest_change_in_market_sentiment_since_financial_crisis.pdf

(London, Zurich): Trumponomics is expected to bolster the case for stronger
growth and rising inflation, sustaining rallies and higher yields in some
financial markets, according to Aviva Investors' first-quarter House View.
 
Donald Trump's victory at the polls on 9 November has had a significant impact
on global markets, provoking a sharp rally in developed market equities and
sending yields higher across all major bond markets. The moves came after signs
last year that reflation would triumph over deflation, which were largely
under-appreciated by investors at the time.
Aviva Investors believes the global growth outlook is supportive of higher
inflation. It expects the global economy to expand in 2017 and 2018 at its
fastest pace since 2011, particularly if other countries join the US in the
adoption of more expansive fiscal policy. 
 
Ian Pizer, Head of Investment Strategy, Aviva Investors, said:
 
"Significant tax reform is a potential game-changer in the US and would
support developed market equities in 2017, with increased infrastructure
spending boosting industrials and materials.
"The upward trend in global yields will continue, helping US and European
financials, although central bank policies in the euro area and Japan could lead
to an increasingly differentiated outlook versus the US. Central bank purchases
should sustain corporate bond markets, where spreads remain attractive relative
to valuations in other asset classes.
"In emerging markets, the story of 2016 is somewhat reversed. Corporate
earnings should continue to recover along with fundamentals, but the threat of
increased global protectionism would hit emerging market equities harder than
other areas of the stock market. A spike in protectionism would also challenge
improving fundamentals in emerging market debt."
 
The full House View can be found here
(https://www.avivainvestors.com/en-gb/adviser/house-view-q1-2017.html) and
includes a wider outlook and analysis of individual asset classes. Highlights
include:
 


* Developed markets equities: Tech companies could benefit from the ability to
repatriate cash at a much reduced tax rate.
* Emerging markets equities:  Chinese policy should remain supportive, but US
dollar strength could pose headwinds.
* Global rates: Uncertainty and volatility are the watchwords with a
differentiated policy outlook globally.
* Credit: Even though fundamentals have deteriorated, defaults are likely to
remain low.
* Emerging market debt: local currency preferred to hard currency and corporate
debt.
* Real estate: Challenges ahead for UK real estate; higher returns expected in
Europe over short-term, with supply in the US picking up.



END
 
 
For more information please contact:

 
Kirsten Duelli
Instinctif Partners
+41 44 280 11 88
mailto:kirsten.duelli@instinctif.com

NOTES TO EDITORS
 
The information and opinions contained in this document are for use by the
financial press and media only. No reliance may be placed for any purpose on the
information or opinions contained in this document nor should they be seen as
advice.
The press release is provided on the basis that Aviva Investors Global Services
Limited is not causing the communication of a financial promotion under
exemption of the Financial Promotion Order, as Aviva Investors Global Services
Limited has no control over the way in which an article based on this press
release is prepared and published by the financial press and media.
Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva
Investors Global Services Limited ("Aviva Investors") as at 10 December,
2016. Unless stated otherwise any views, opinions expressed are those of Aviva
Investors. They should not be viewed as indicating any guarantee of return from
an investment managed by Aviva Investors nor as advice of any nature. The value
of an investment and any income from it may go down as well as up and the
investor may not get back the original amount invested.  Issued by Aviva
Investors Global Services Limited, registered in England No. 1151805. Registered
Office: St Helens, 1 Undershaft, London EC3P 3DQ Authorised and regulated by the
Financial Conduct Authority.


 
Aviva Investors
Aviva Investors is the global asset management business of Aviva plc. The
business delivers investment management solutions, services and client-driven
performance to clients worldwide. Aviva Investors operates in 15 countries in
Asia Pacific, Europe, North America and the United Kingdom with assets under
management of CHF 413.6 billion as at 30 June 2016.




AVIVA PLC
 


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* Photo Ian Pizer: http://e3.marco.ch/publish/bluerobin/541_6077/Ian_Pizer_ho_bw_nb.jpg 
* Media Release (PDF): http://e3.marco.ch/publish/bluerobin/541_6078/Trump_prompts_biggest_change_in_market_sentiment_since_financial_crisis.pdf 

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