L'agence d'évaluation financière Fitch a confirmé lundi la note de crédit de ThyssenKrupp en relevant sa perspective de "négative" à "stable" pour le groupe allemand, principalement en raison de l'amélioration des progrés de son aciérie brésilienne CSA. Fitch avance que CSA a réduit sa perte d'exploitation sur l'exercice fiscal clos au 30 septembre et que les mesures d'économies de coûts mises en place globalement par ThyssenKrupp devraient permettre au groupe allemand de stabiliser son profil financier sur le long terme. Fitch a confirmé sa note de crédit de BB+ pour ThyssenKrupp. 


  -Jérôme Batteau, DOW JONES NEWSWIRES jerome.batteau@wsj.com 

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  Fitch Ratings-Moscow/London-08 December 2014: Fitch Ratings has revised Germany-based ThyssenKrupp AG's (>> Teekay Corporation) Outlook to Stable from Negative. Its Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured ratings have been affirmed at 'BB+'. The Short-term IDR and commercial paper programme ratings have been affirmed at 'B'. 


  The change in Outlook to Stable reflects an improvement at TK's Brazilian steel plant, CSA, as reported adjusted EBIT narrowed to a EUR60m loss at financial year ended 30 September 2014 from a EUR495m loss in FY13. This, alongside cost-saving measures elsewhere in the business, has led Fitch to expect a stable financial profile for the group over the long-term. 


  The ratings reflect TK's strong market position in many of its segments, and its diverse business profile versus steel-focused competitors, with its capital goods business providing stability. New management initiatives in cost optimisation and profitability improvement as well as a balanced capital spending approach have brought some positive results. Funds from operations (FFO) net leverage fell to 4.3x in FY14 from 7.1x in FY13, while EBITDA margin rose to 5.1% from 2.8% during the same period. We expect Fitch-calculated free cash flow (>> First Commonwealth Financial) to return to a neutral position in FY16, following significant annual outflows seen in recent years. 


  KEY RATING DRIVERS 


  CSA Utilisation Improvement 


  - Having guaranteed 40% utilisation of CSA through an off-take agreement with a consortium of ArcelorMittal and Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation, a key risk to the ratings is TK's ability to utilise the remainder of capacity to minimise losses. CSA has been largely successful in placing volumes, with a utilisation of 82% in FY14. A devaluation of the Brazilian real has also made CSA's production more competitive versus US- based competitors. With continuing strong demand in the US, annual capacity utilisation at CSA is expected to improve further, potentially to 90% in FY15. 


  The outlook for the Brazilian economy in FY15 remains robust, hence steel demand and pricing are expected to recover. Fitch expects progressive improvement of CSA's profitability, driven by higher capacity utilisation, higher realised average prices and further cost optimisation. 


  US Downstream Exposure Cut 


  - Following the sale of the Alabama rolling and coating plant for USD1.55bn in FY14 TK has removed its exposure to the low-margin and highly volatile downstream steel business for which the main end users are automotive and appliance companies. Even though the automotive market in the US has demonstrated recovery in recent years, it is unlikely to improve margins in the downstream sector, given excessive overcapacity. Despite the significant losses associated with the sale, the cash provided has helped reduce net debt levels, and reduces uncertainty in the business while providing guaranteed 40% capacity off-take at CSA according to the sale agreement. CSA remains TK's only exposure to the Americas steel market, in particular the upstream segment. 


  Restructuring of Outokumpu Legacy 


  - Re-acquired from Outokumpu through a separation deal in February 2014, VDM (producing high-performance alloys) and Italian stainless steel plant, Acciai Speciali Terni S.p.A. (>> Asterias Biotherapeutics Inc), are considered non-core operations and are likely to be disposed of in the medium-to-long term. Meanwhile, AST is currently loss-making, and performance at VDM is poor. Approximately EUR50m has been allocated for restructuring these businesses, primarily through staff optimisation, expected in FY15. AST represents a significant portion of TK's total of EUR258m factored receivables, which are treated as debt by Fitch. These were brought back onto TK's balance sheet in FY14, increasing adjusted gross debt. This would be reversed if TK sells the company. 


  Credit Profile Weak but Improving 


  - TK's credit metrics remain weak for a 'BB+' rating. At the same time Fitch acknowledges the progress in deleveraging over the past two years as FFO net leverage declined to 4.3x in FY14 from 7.6x in FY12 (net of a cash adjustment by Fitch of EUR500m to reported figures to account for operational cash requirements). New management initiatives on profitability improvement have translated into Fitch-calculated EBIT of EUR982m in FY14, compared with a loss of EUR195m in FY12. Though still high for the 'BB+' rating, as performance improves at CSA we expect FFO-adjusted net leverage to improve to below 3x in FY15. Gross leverage is likely to remain closer to 4x as TK maintains a strong liquidity position and refinances its maturing high-coupon bonds. 


  Diversified Business Profile 


  - TK's ratings reflect its well-diversified business profile, compared with many steel-focused competitors. As an industrial conglomerate, the group benefits from the relative stability of its capital goods businesses and broad geographical diversification. It also holds strong market positions in a range of businesses, including elevators and selected engineering and service activities. 


  Corporate Governance 


  - Over the past two years Board of Directors changes and the payment of fines regarding TK's involvement in rail and elevator cartels in Germany have highlighted corporate governance and culture issues at the company. Fitch believes that current senior management is committed to improving corporate governance and introducing a culture of greater accountability. Supporting this view are the amnesty programme and voluntary special audit undertaken in FY13. 


  RATING SENSITIVITIES 


  Negative: Future developments that may result in negative rating action are 


  -EBIT margin failing to improve towards 5% (FY14: 2.4%), FFO lease-adjusted gross leverage sustained above 3.5x (above 3.0x for FFO net leverage), and free cash flow remaining negative. 


  Positive: Future developments that may result in positive rating action are 


  - -An improvement in profitability, as demonstrated by an EBIT margin of above 8% resulting in consistently positive free cash flow and an FFO lease-adjusted gross leverage around 2.5x (2.0x for FFO net leverage). 


  LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE 


  - Liquidity is strong, given EUR3.5bn available cash, net of a EUR500m adjustment Fitch has made for operational cash requirements, and EUR3.8bn undrawn committed facilities against EUR1bn of maturing debt in FY15. In addition, the group regularly accesses capital markets through its EUR1.5bn commercial paper programme, which was unutilised at FYE14. 


  Contact: 


  Primary Analyst 


  - Thomas Corcoran 


  - Associate Director 


  - +44 20 3530 1231 


  Supervisory Analyst 


  - Ilya Makarov 


  - Director 


  - +7 495 956 6904 


  - Fitch Ratings Moscow 


  - Valovaya Street, 26 


  - Moscow 


  Committee Chairperson 


  - Alex Griffiths 


  - Managing Director 


  - +44 20 3530 1033 


  Media Relations: Elaine Bailey, London, Tel: +44 203 530 1153, Email: elaine.bailey@fitchratings.com; Athos Larkou, London, Tel: +44 203 530 1549, Email: athos.larkou@fitchratings.com. 


  Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com. For regulatory purposes in various jurisdictions, the supervisory analyst named above is deemed to be the primary analyst for this issuer; the principal analyst is deemed to be the secondary. 


  Applicable criteria, 'Corporate Rating Methodology: Including Short-Term Ratings and Parent and Subsidiary Linkage', dated 28 May 2014, are available at www.fitchratings.com. 


  Applicable Criteria and Related Research: 


  - Corporate Rating Methodology - Including Short-Term Ratings and Parent and Subsidiary Linkage 


  - http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=749393 


  Additional Disclosure 


  - Solicitation Status 


  - http://www.fitchratings.com/gws/en/disclosure/solicitation?pr_id=944575 


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