05 August 2014
Earnings review
DLSI
France | Support services
Buy (Buy)
Target price
EUR 15.40
Current price
EUR 10.97
Baptiste de Leudeville
bdeleudeville@keplercheuvreux.com
+41 22 994 1573
Difficult Q2 for sales, FY forecasts unchanged
Lower-than-expected sales in Q2 and H1
Decrease in domestic market but still above market average
Dynamism confirmed in foreign countries (+6% YOY)
Full-year sales guidance (EUR190m) reiterated
DLSI failed to confirm a good start of the year in Q2 (-2.3%) Revenues for H1 were slightly positive (+0.3% YOY at EUR84.9m, +1.30% LFL), but failed to reach our expectations (EUR86.8m, +2.5% forecasted), due to a decline in Q2 (-2.3% to EUR45.5m vs. +1.8%). The French domestic market failed to confirm the pick-up in Q1 and reached EUR58.3m (-2.1% YOY vs. +1.8% expected). The performance remains above the market average (-3.4% by end of June 2014) according Prism'Emploi. Foreign countries (growth driver) came in at EUR26.6m, up by 6%. The group confirmed its guidance to reach EUR190m in full-year
2014 (in line with our forecasts), notably helped by good momentum at the start of the second semester.
Results recovery expected in 2014
In 2013, operating margin rose to 3.6%, i.e. close to 2008 pre-crisis levels.
Front page
Reuters ALDLS.PA Bloomberg ALDLS FP Index DJ Stoxx 600
Market data | |
Market cap (EURm) | 28 |
Free float | 34% |
No. of shares outstanding (m) | 3 |
Avg. daily trading volume('000) | 7 |
YTD abs performance | 50.3% |
52-week high (EUR) | 15.90 |
52-week low (EUR) | 4.55 |
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 May 14
Thanks to developments abroad (foreign countries now represents close about one-third of total sales) and the full impact of the CICE effect, we estimate that the recovery could continue. We expect EBIT margin of
4.2% for 2014 (+60bps YOY) and 4.3% for 2015 (i.e. back to the 2007 record high).
Return to historical peak
As DLSI is expected to bounce back to its historical performance in terms of results and FCF generation, we believe that the share price could once again go back to its highs seen in May and June. Adding in the potential resumption of the external growth strategy (good track record), we estimate that it is a good time to Buy the stock.
Price
DJ Stoxx 600 (rebased)
IMPORTANT. Please refer to keplercheuvreux.com/disclaimeror to the last
page of this report for "Important disclosures" and analyst certification(s) keplercheuvreux.com
distribué par |